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re going to beat these guys; and you can e and work for us。"; So they all laughed。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):我当时说:“非常高兴看到你在研究这些事情,因为我们将战胜这些家伙,你可以来和我们一起干。”他们都笑了。
JEFFREY SACHS: He said: ";Oh; that's very interesting。 What do you have in mind?"; And I described a few elements; basically how to stop hyperinflation。 And he said: ";No; no; you have to go much beyond that。 You don't understand。 We need so much more。 You're just going on the surface。 This country needs a plete overhaul。 We've got to get out of the mess that we're in。"; I wasn't sure whether he was provoking me; whether he was kidding; whether he was sober; whether he knew what he was doing。 It turned out that this was Goni; Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada a genius。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):他说:“哦,这非常有意思,那你有什么想法?”于是我谈了一下我的看法,主要是有关如何制止恶性通货膨胀的。他说:“不,不,你必须还要考虑其他的事情,你不明白,我们不仅仅需要制止通货膨胀,其它的很多问题也急需解决,你还只是涉及到问题的皮毛。这个国家需要一次彻底的修整,我们要度过我们正在经历的各种难关。”我当时不明白他是否是有意戏弄我,是否是在跟我开玩笑,是否是认真的,是否知道他在干什么,后来才知道,他就是孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔——一个天才。
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Chapter 11: Shock Therapy Applied '4:48'
第十一章: 休克疗法的应用
NARRATOR: Goni's party did win the election; and he became minister of planning。 He told the president that Bolivia was running out of time。
旁白:孔塞洛的政党的确在选举中获得了胜利,他出任计划部部长,他告诉总统,###的时间是很有限的。
JUAN CARIAGA: We told him; ";You have 90 days before Bolivia's hyperinflation bees the highest inflation in world history。"; So he told us; ";Okay; you have 20 days; you have to start working now。";
胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):我们告诉他,“再过90天,###的通货膨胀率就要变成历史上最高的恶性通货膨胀率了,”他告诉我们,“好吧,我给你们20天的时间,你们必须从现在起就开始工作。”
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: There was a big discussion whether you could stop a hyperinflation or an inflation period by taking gradualist steps。 In this Jeff Sachs was influential。 He said: ";All this gradualist stuff just doesn't work。 When it really gets out of control you've got to stop it; like a medicine。 You've got to take some radical steps; otherwise your patient is going to die。";
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):对于能否采用一个渐进的步骤来终止恶性通货膨胀或一般的通货膨胀的问题,我们进行了大规模的讨论。在这方面,杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)是很有影响力的,他说:“所有这些渐进的措施都是无用的,当事情真的无法控制时,你必须制止它,像打针吃药一样,你必须采用一些激进的措施,否则你的病人便会死去。”
NARRATOR: To avoid leaks; they worked at home。 Every few days; Goni reported to the president。
旁白:为防止出现纰漏,他们都在家中工作。每隔几天,孔塞洛就要向总统汇报一次。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: We said: ";Look; boys; you've got one chance。 And remember; as Machiavelli said; 'It's all the bad news at once; the good news little by little。'"; So he said; ";Get it all done。"; Shock therapy is get it over; get it done; stop hyperinflation; and then start rebuilding your economy so you achieve growth。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):我们讲:“好吧,孩子们,你们只有一次机会,记住,正像马基雅弗利(Machiavelli)所说的那样‘坏消息总是一下子都来了,而好消息则只会一点一点地来’。”于是他说,“开始行动吧。”休克疗法就是终止这场恶性通货膨胀,重建你们的经济,使你们重新获得增长。
NARRATOR: In August 1985; Goni went public with a program called ";shock therapy。";
旁白:1985年8月,孔塞洛宣布实行一个被称为“休克疗法”的项目。
JUAN CARIAGA: It caught everybody by surprise。 It had great credibility。 It was a shock。
胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):这使得所有人都大吃一惊。它的可信度很高。太不可思议了。
NARRATOR: Shock therapy spelled the death of dependency theory。 Government spending was slashed。 Price controls were scrapped。 Import tariffs were cut。 Government budgets were balanced。
旁白:休克疗法宣告了依赖理论的死亡,政府开支被大量缩减,价格控制被废弃,进口关税大大降低,政府预算平衡了。
JUAN CARIAGA: We didn't use highly sophisticated economic theory to deal with hyperinflation。 We just used very simple things; such as from now on the government will only spend what it gets。 You get one peso; spend one peso; you get two pesos; spend two pesos。 If we don't have it; we don't spend it。 No borrowing from the Central Bank; and therefore the Central Bank did not have to print money。
胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):我们并没有采用什么高深的经济学理论来对付通货膨胀,我们使用的只是一些简单的手段,比如,从现在起政府只能量入为出,有一比索才能花一比索,有两比索才能花两比索,没有就别花,不允许从中央银行借款,所以中央银行就不必印钞票了。
NARRATOR: Shock therapy meant that the price of essentials transport; food; fuel all shot up。 Until then people had thought that only a military dictatorship like Chile's could impose such tough measures without tearing society apart。
旁白:休克疗法意味着一些必需品——比如交通、食品、燃料——的价格大幅上扬。那时,人们认为只有像智利那样的军政府才有能力在不分裂社会的前提下执行如此激进的措施。
DANIEL YERGIN: Bolivia may be a small country; but it had a very big impact in terms of kickstarting reform throughout Latin America。 In Brazil; a professor; who actually used to teach the dependency theory; launched a program of economic reform that looked a lot like shock therapy。
丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):###是一个小国,但是它在作为引发整个拉丁美洲改革方面却具有非常大的影响。在巴西,一位曾经教授依赖理论的教授,发起了一个看起来非常像休克疗法的经济改革项目。
DANIEL YERGIN: Argentina was suffering from 20;000 percent inflation and the new president of that country said; you know; we've seen this movie before。
丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):阿根延正遭遇着20,000%的通货膨胀率。新任总统说,你知道,我们原来从电影中看到过这种场面。
DOMINGO CAVALLO; Economy Minister; Argentina; 2001: Promarket reforms could be implemented under a democracy; and we demonstrated that it was possible here in Argentina。
阿根廷经济部长(2001)多明戈。卡菲罗(Domingo Cavallo):支持市场化的改革可以在民主社会中实行,我们要证明,在阿根廷也可以。
NARRATOR: All across Latin America; governments began to sit up and take notice。
旁白:整个拉丁美洲的政府都开始密切关注了。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: I think the Bolivian experience did have influence。 The fact that we did it in democracy; we did it without great social violence; had impact on economic thinkers and on politicians。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):我认为###的经历的确很有影响力,我们通过民主的方式改革,没有引起大的社会###的事实对经济学家和政治家们有很大的影响。
JEFFREY SACHS: In late 1985; as we were struggling late into the night with a problem; he said; ";You know; this is extraordinarily hard; but what's happening here; this is going to have to happen all through Latin America。"; I watched it unfold; one country after another。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):1985年末,一天,我们为一个问题工作到深夜时,他说:“你知道,这的确是非常难,但是在这里发生的一切,将会在整个拉丁美洲发生。”我看到这应验了,在一个接一个的国家应验了。
NARRATOR: It is a curious fact of history that what happened in Bolivia was to have a direct impact on the frozen economies of Eastern Europe。
旁白:在###发生的事情给死气沉沉的东欧经济带来了直接的冲击,这在历史上是很不寻常的。
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Chapter 12: The Miracle Year '6:57'
第十二章: 神奇的一年
JEFFREY SACHS: I was approached by a Polish government official who had watched the Bolivian reforms; and then had seen the work I had done in Argentina and Brazil。 He finally asked me would I go to Poland and help。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):一位波兰政府官员找到了我,他看到了###的改革,然后他了解了我在阿根廷和巴西进行过的工作,他最后问我是否能到波兰去帮助他们解决问题。
Onscreen title: Warsaw; Poland
字幕标题:波兰,华沙
The Poles themselves feared that they were descending into starvation。 The shops were utterly empty for miles。 I would see a woman just standing on the street sobbing: ";There's no milk in this city。 I can't find any milk for my child。 What am I going to do?"; It was terrifying。