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DANIEL YERGIN： And at each stage； the crisis turned out to have a virulence that became known as contagion； much greater than anticipated。 And what that really reflected was indeed globalization； was the way these economies had bee locked together and investors looked at emerging markets。 They said there was a problem in Thailand； well； then there's a problem in these other countries。 And so each step of the crisis created these shock waves that carried on into the next。
DANIEL YERGIN：在每一个阶段，这一危机都有一个致命的表现，被叫做恶性蔓延，比预想的要厉害得多。而它们真正所反映的是全球化的确是这些经济体紧扣在一起的载体，全球化也是投资者看待新兴市场的方式。
Onscreen caption： Kuala Lumpur； Malaysia； July 1997
字幕：吉隆坡，马来西亚，1997年7月
NARRATOR： Contagion spread to Thailand's neighbors。 Malaysia's economy had seemed stable。 Suddenly； it； too； was facing relentless pressure from global markets。
旁白：恶性影响蔓延到泰国的邻国。马来西亚的经济当时似乎是稳定的。突然，它也面临着来自全球市场的巨大的压力。
MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD： We have the currency going down and down and down； and we have the stock market doing the same。 The index kept on going down； no matter what we do。 And we felt totally helpless。 We felt that there was no way we could recover。 So； I mean； the feeling was very bad； very frightening。
马哈蒂尔：我们的货币持续贬值，我们的股票市场也同样持续走低。无论我们做什么，指数都持续下跌。我们感到完全无助。我们感到我们无法再恢复了。我是说，当时的感觉坏透了，很恐怖。
Onscreen caption： Jakarta； Indonesia
字幕：雅加达，印度尼西亚
NARRATOR： Contagion next hit Indonesia； the most populous country in the region。 Its government collapsed； its cities descended into chaos。
旁白：恶性影响下一个蔓延到印度尼西亚，该地区中人口最多的国家。它的政府垮台了；它的很多城市都陷入了骚乱中。
LEE KUAN YEW： The fund managers didn't know the difference between Indonesia and Malaysia； Thailand； Singapore。 They just said； "；I want out。"； Property prices collapsed； panies collapsed。 And in the case of Indonesia； the social fabric collapsed。 Churches have been burnt； mosques have been attacked； they have killed each other。 This will take years to heal。 And it's all the fallout of an economic collapse。
李光耀：那些基金经理人并不了解印度尼西亚和马来西亚，泰国，新加坡的区别。他们只是说：“我不玩儿了。”地产价格崩溃了；公司垮台了。在印度尼西亚，社会的秩序也垮掉了。教堂被焚毁；清真寺受到袭击；他们互相残杀。这需要很多年来平复。而所有这一切都是一次经济崩溃所带来的产物。
NARRATOR： This was a new kind of financial crisis； unlike anything the International Monetary Fund had ever encountered。 The IMF anized huge loans for Indonesia and other Asian nations； on the condition they cut government spending； raise interest rates； and eliminate corruption。
旁白：这是一种金融危机的新形式，与以往国际货币基金组织所遇到过的任何一种危机都不同。国际货币基金组织为印度尼西亚和其他亚洲国家组织了巨额贷款，条件是他们削减政府开支，提高利率，以及消除腐败。
STANLEY FISCHER： You're the doctor going in to deal with a very sick patient。 The public blames the doctor for the fact that the patient is sick； but the patient was sick to begin with。 But these things are societally wrenching； and there are huge vested interests； and you wouldn't get into these crises if the vested interests weren't that important。 That I think is why it takes political change to deal with a crisis as big as this。
STANLEY FISCHER：你就是一个要治疗一个危重病人的医生。公众抱怨这个医生因为那个病人有病，但是，是病人先有的病。然而这些事情是会对社会造成伤害的，但又有人期望从中获取巨大的利益，而如果这些所期望的利益不那么重要的话，你是不会深入到这些危机中去的。这就是我认为的为什么要处理好这么大的一次危机需要政治改革的原因。
NARRATOR： To some of the region's entrenched leaders； the IMF's conditions smacked of a new kind of colonialism。
旁白：对于该地区的一些地位巩固的领导人来说，国际货币基金组织的条件就象是一种新形式的殖民主义强加给他们的条件。
MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD： Presently we see a wellplanned effort to undermine the economies of all the Asian countries by destabilizing their currencies。
马哈蒂尔：目前，我们看到一种要通过使我们的货币币值不稳定的方法来达到破坏所有亚洲国家经济的目的的，计划周密的努力。
In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force； and then you could control that country。 Today it is not necessary at all。 You can destabilize a country； make it poor； and then make a request for help； and for the help that is given； you gain control over the policies of the country； and when you gain control over the policies of a country； effectively you have colonized that country。
在过去，你需要首先用武力征服一个国家， 继而你就可以控制那个国家。现在，这些已经完全没有必要了。你可以使一个国家不稳定，使它变穷，然后它会向你请求帮助，而因为那些你给予的帮助，你就可以控制那个国家的政策，而当你控制了一个国家的政策，你就已经有效地把那个国家殖民化了。
NARRATOR： The market forces were simply too powerful for the IMF； or any government； to contain。 In late 1997； contagion reached Korea； one of the most successful economies in the world。
旁白：市场力量对于国际货币基金组织，或任何一个国家来说，都是太过强大了而无法遏制。在1997年末，恶性影响蔓延到韩国——世界上最成功的经济体之一。
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA： It was unbelievable that the crisis had spread as quickly as to Indonesia and Korea； and within a matter of six months or seven months。 But the world was much globalized that we thought it was at that time。
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA：这一危机蔓延得如此之快，在六，七个月间迅速蔓延到印度尼西亚和韩国，让人无法相信。但是，世界的全球化程度要比我们当时以为的大得多。
Onscreen caption： Seoul； Korea； December 1997
字幕：汉城，韩国，1997年12月
ROBERT RUBIN： In the last week of December of 1997； the 11th largest country economy； rather in the world； which was Korea； had roughly speaking 4 billion of reserves left and was using reserves at the rate of 1 billion a day。 Well； it didn't take a great deal of quantitative insight to see that that was not a longterm viable situation。
罗伯特。鲁宾：在1997年12月的最后一个星期，世界第十一大的国家 —— 经济体——韩国，只剩下四十亿美元的外汇储备，而以每天用掉十亿美元的速度消耗着它的储备。这并不需要大量的量化的洞察力就可以看出这不是一个长远可行的局面。
NARRATOR： Korea had been misleading the world； claiming it had enough money to withstand the crisis。 The IMF's Stanley Fischer arrived in Seoul to inspect the Central Bank's accounts。
旁白：韩国误导了世界，宣称它有足够的资金来抵御这次危机。国际货币基金组织的的费舍尔来到汉城审查中央银行的账目。
STANLEY FISCHER： I visited Korea a couple of days before they turned to the IMF for help； and it was a circus atmosphere。 It was a state of panic； and it was at that point that I went to the Central Bank and was shown how much money was left in the Korean Central bank。 It was essentially all gone。
费舍尔：我是在韩国向国际货币基金组织提请帮助的前两天访问韩国的。那里的气氛一片混乱。到处是一片惊恐。正是在那时，我去了中央银行并被告知韩国的中央银行还剩下多少钱。实际上，所有的钱都没了。
NARRATOR： Korea was about to default on its loans from Japanese and Western banks。 Pressured by their governments； the banks agreed to share some of the pain： They rolled over their loans。 Korea was then given the largest bailout in history。
旁白：韩国当时正要准备不履行他们从日本和西方银行所得的贷款。迫于它们各自政府的压力，这些银行同意分担部分痛苦：延期还款安排。韩国从而度过历史上最大的难关。
Onscreen caption： Korea received 55 billion in new loans and credits。
字幕：韩国收到了550亿美元的新贷款和信贷。
LEE HSIEN LOONG： If they had done that in Thailand； I think that they would have not only avoided some economic problems； but I think that a sense in Southeast Asia that the Americans were really on the side of putting things right would have been stronger。
李显龙：如果他们在泰国这样做，我认为他们不仅可以避免一些经济难题，而且我认为，在东南亚认为美国人确实是要解决问题的看###强烈得多。
Chapter 13： Russia Defaults ＇2：31＇
第十三章： 俄罗斯不履行还款义务
WILLIAM McDONOUGH； President； Federal Reserve Bank of New York： Then a very； very strange thing happened。 From about the first of February until the beginning of August； there was a period in which financial markets essentially decided that risk didn't exist anywhere。
WILLIAM McDONOUGH，�