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WILLIAM McDONOUGH，纽约联邦储备银行行长：当时一个非常非常奇怪的事情发生了。大约从二月一号直到八月初，有这样一个时期，各资本市场认为风险是全然不存在的。
Onscreen caption： Moscow； August 1998
字幕：莫斯科，1998年8月
NARRATOR： Markets thought contagion had been contained in Asia。 Investment flowed elsewhere。 Some came to Russia； where the Moscow stock market was the best performing in the world。 But economic reforms had stalled； and Russia was heavily in debt。 Even so； investors were convinced they'd found an emerging market that couldn't fail。
旁白：各个市场均认为这一恶性影响已被遏制在亚洲。投资流向其他地区。有些流入俄罗斯。当时的莫斯科股票市场在世界上表现最好。但是，经济改革已经停止了，而且俄罗斯负债累累。尽管如此，投资者们坚信他们找到了一个新兴的，不会失败的市场。
WILLIAM McDONOUGH： Investors had decided Russia is an exsuperpower； it has lots of missiles and lots of atomic warheads certainly you could not have a financial accident in Russia； because the rest of the world； the rich countries； would bail Russia out。 Well； it turned out that that was wrong。
WILLIAM McDONOUGH：投资者们认为俄罗斯是一个前超级大国，它有很多导弹和核弹头——当然你不可能在俄罗斯有金融事故，因为世界其他国家，那些发达国家，会帮助俄罗斯度过难关的。然而，结果是他们想错了。
NARRATOR： Russia defaulted on its debt。 Its currency plummeted。 Global investors were stunned。
旁白：俄罗斯不能履行它的还款义务。它的货币大大地贬值。全球的投资者被震惊了。
WILLIAM McDONOUGH： All these people who in the previous seven months had decided there was no risk anywhere literally panicked and decided there's got to be massive risk everywhere。 Behind each fence and barnyard wall there must be a risk that we hadn't though of； you know； like the redcoats retreating from Lexington。
WILLIAM McDONOUGH：所有那些在前七个月中认为风险实际根本不存在的人恐慌了， 并认为巨大的风险无处不在。在每一个篱笆和空场围墙的后面肯定会有一个我们没有想到的风险，你知道，就象当年红衣军团撤出莱克星顿一样。
NARRATOR： Everywhere； markets were freezing up。 The economic crisis seemed to have taken on a life of its own。
旁白：世界各地，市场都停滞不前了。经济危机似乎开始了它自己的一个生命周期。
ROBERT RUBIN： I thought at the time that I had a pretty good sense of what was going on。 But what I didn't know； and nobody could possibly have known； was not what was going on at the moment that you were looking at； but what was going to happen at the next moment。
罗伯特。鲁宾：当时，我以为我挺了解发生了什么事。但是，我当时不知道的，而且没有人可能知道的并不是当时在发生的事情，而是再往后要发生什么事情了。
RICHARD GEPHARDT； Democratic Leader； ： When you get in a room with both Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin and they say they're scared to death； and they've never seen anything like this； and they're worried about whether they can get through it； I get worried； because they know a heck of a lot more about it than I do。 You had the contagion sweeping across the developing countries。 As Rubin said； we'd never seen that before。 I mean； maybe in the Depression they saw that over a period of time； but nothing happened that quickly。
RICHARD GEPHARDT，美国众议院的民主党领袖：如果你与格林斯潘和罗伯特。鲁宾来到同一个房间，而他们说他们快要吓死了，他们从没见过这样的事，而且他们担心他们能否扛过去，我就紧张了，因为他们对此的了解比我多得多。危机的影响席卷了所有发展中国家。正如鲁宾所说，我们以前从来没有见过这样的事情。我是说，也许在大萧条时他们在某一时期看到了这种情况，但是，绝没有发生得这么快。
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Chapter 14： The Crisis Reaches America ＇7：07＇
第十四章： 危机波及了美国
NARRATOR： Now the crisis had reached America。 A littleknown but powerful private investment fund was on the brink of bankruptcy。
旁白：现在危机已经波及到了美国。一个鲜为人知但很强大的私人投资基金已经到了破产的边缘。
Long Term Capital Management； or LTCM； directly controlled 100 billion of global assets and； indirectly； more than a trillion dollars。
长资公司，或者LTCM，直接控制着一千亿美元的全球资产，间接控制着超过一万亿美元。
JON CORZINE； Cochairman； Goldman Sachs； 19941999： The '90s saw a huge buildup in concentrations that we had never seen on a global scale。 Maybe we had way back in history。 Maybe the Romans had financial institutions that were disproportionately large to the overall activity of the world that they operated in； but LTCM was a specific type of hedge fund。 They were involved whether it was the Singapore exchange； the Tokyo stock exchange； the London stock exchange； the New York。 There was no market that they weren't ＇involved in＇ maybe the largest player； or close to the largest player。
JON CORNINE，高盛公司的联合主席，19941999：九十年代见证了我们从没看到过的全球范围的集中。也许在历史上很早期我们有过。也许罗马帝国曾经有过与整个世界的活动都不成比例的特大的金融机构，但是长资公司是一种特别的对冲基金。他们介入无论是新加坡股票交易所，东京股票交易所，伦敦股票交易所，还是纽约股票交易所等各个交易所。没有哪一个市场他们没有（介入） 他们可能是最大的或接近最大的玩家。
NARRATOR： By September 1998； LTCM's losses were spiraling out of control。 Contagion had arrived on Wall Street。 Incredibly； the failure of this single investment fund threatened the entire global economy。
旁白：到了1998年9月，长资公司的亏损螺旋上升至失去控制。危机的影响来到了华尔街。令人难以置信的是，就这么一个单独的投资基金的失败竟然威胁到了整个全球经济。
DANIEL YERGIN： If LTCM went down； it would be just the gears； the machine just stopping； the economy not working。 And of course it's not just what's on the balance sheet of banks and so forth； but that would translate into people not working； businesses not operating； small businesses not being able to get their capital they need。 And this in a global economy。 It was almost inconceivable to see what the picture was； but it was sort of just not working； and people just not working。
DANIEL YERGIN：如果长资公司跨掉了，那就是传动装置的问题，是机器停止工作，经济不再发展。当然，这不仅仅是摆在银行等的收支平衡表上的，而是表现为人们不能工作，企业不能开工，小型企业得不到它们所需的资金。而这在一个全球性的经济中，简直不敢想象这样的场景，但它就是那种停滞，人们无工可做。
NARRATOR： The New York Federal Reserve summoned representatives of major ； then at Goldman Sachs； was among them。
旁白：纽约联邦储备银行召集美国和欧洲的主要银行代表参加一个紧急会议。JON CORZINE，当时任职于高盛公司，就是与会者之一。
JON CORZINE： The real problem of Long Term Capital was nobody really understood all the downsides。 All one knew was it was going to be extraordinarily dangerous to enter into that。 And everybody； I think； understood the Fed's concern that that had real implications to the real economy。
JON CORZINE：长资公司的真正问题是没有人真正懂得所有的市场下挫的情况。每个人只知道要进入这个市场是极其危险的。每个人，我认为，都理解联邦储备的担心， 即它对实际的经济有着实际的寓意。
NARRATOR： Since LTCM was a private fund； the government could not impose a solution。 The fate of the global economy was in the hands of these bankers。
旁白：由于长资公司是一个私人基金，政府无法对它实行强制的解决办法。全球经济的命运就这样被掌握在这些银行家的手里。
WILLIAM McDONOUGH： The head of a securities firm or a bank is not paid to be a patriot。 He or she is paid to serve the best interests of the shareholders； so the most that one could do in a position like mine is to say the public interest may well be served by Long Term Capital Management not failing； but there is no publicsector money to solve the problem。 The taxpayer is not going to do this。 You folks have to decide whether it's in your interest to do it。
WILLIAM McDONOUGH：一个证券公司或是一家银行的头儿要莋爱国者是没有酬劳的。但他或她为他们的股东的利益服务是有酬劳的，所以，处在我这样的位置上的人最多可以做的就是去说，公众的利益也许可以通过长资公司的不失败来得到维护。但是，我们没有公共部门的资金去解决这个问题。纳税人是不会这么做的。你们这些人不得不决定这么做是否符合你们的利益。
NARRATOR： The banks agreed to put up their own money to rescue LTCM。 Wall Street had averted disaster； but the global crisis had one final chapter to go。
旁白：那些银行同意用它们自己的资金来拯救长资公司。华尔街逃过一劫，但是，这一全球危机还没有走到尽头。
Onscreen caption： Rio de Janeiro； Brazil； December 1998
字幕：里约热内卢，巴西，1998年12月
What had started in Asia now reached Brazil； the eighth largest economy in the world。 But